A Storm Heading to Brazil

A Storm Heading to Brazil

By: Erreh Svaia

“A war can perhaps be won single-handedly. But peace - lasting peace - cannot be secured without the support of all.”

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

A prominent part of the known benefits of democracy, is the fact that anyone can become a president, the daughter of an assassinated dictator in South Korea (Park Geun Hye, Korea’s first female president), the daughter of a jailed dictator in Peru (Keiko Fujimori), a Liberation Theology bishop in Paraguay (Fernando Lugo, later impeached), a comedian in Guatemala (Jimmy Morales), an ex con in Ukraine (Viktor Yanukovych), and both an ex Union leader (Lula) and an ex guerrilla member (Dilma) in Brazil, even someone like Donald Trump can become president, no, no one said that democracy was perfect, bad news.

Congressional impeachment may incite the final exit of Dilma Rousseff from the presidential office by the second week of May, Dilma faces countless accusations of corruption, her left wing government seems to be living it's last days, as the coalition that helped her reach power is disintegrating at fast pace, resulting in pure irony that as Dilma's struggles with her last days in office, Brazil gets ready for the Olympics to be staged in the South American gigantic country, bad timing, it may be; Last time, a Pope Francis (his first to a foreign country after been elected Pope) visit and a Soccer World Cup helped to ease social unrest, the circus helped her a lot, it even granted Rousseff a second period as president, despite the bad economic results, now it looks like luck won't be on Dilma's side, in what she describes as a coup d etat, a strange coup this would be.

Coup or not, vice-president Michel Temer is ready to become the next Brazilian president, a man described by some as the "Frank Underwood" from Brazil, according to Dilma, Temer has been lurking in the shadows, conspiring against her in order to move forward towards power, he might be ready to exercise as president in the inaugural ceremony at the Olympics, but his stay in the presidential office might be too short considering that he is also under accusation of being part of the same corruption scandals involving almost all of the political elite in Brazil, the problem with Temer is that he is hardly a popular guy, so the ousting of Rousseff might not be exactly the complete solution to this puzzle.

Corruption has become a major issue in the whole Brazilian government system in the las decades, prosperity, thanks to the raw materials bonanza, and China enormous help as a partner gave Brazil a big lift to the skies, but such a bug amount of money entering the country, also woke up politicians ambitions, as politicians from every party, left and right wings are no known to be implicated in the so called corruption cases in Petrobras, Brazil's huge oil company and the so called Lava Jato case, the thing here is the little inconvenient that if the right wing is interested in getting Dilma out of office to seize power, that same right wing is as fully implicated in the corruption cases just as the left wing, conducting the South American giant thru a close end street and more social unrest, angered the citizens, anger traducing into emotions and mind numbness, so the political chaos could face a complicated stage, if pressure increases, Dilma might decide to quit voluntarily, opening the door for new elections to come, but again, sometimes democracy can become a major headache, and anger and despair are bad advisers, a situation equal to the desperation of the angry voter, deceived by the left and the right wings, decided to vote for an outsider, in Venezuela, it was Chávez, and the rest of the story is well known, 700% plus inflation, with the always latent possibility of a new military coup (an always menacing shadow form Brazi´s past)to end the relatively young and incipient democracy in Brazil

Another possible scenario if Dilma quits, could be the return of ex-president Lula Da Silva, a polarizing man, also involved in the corrupt scandals, but still considered a key figure in the rise of the Brazilian economy more than a decade ago, ironically, if Lula is able to launch a presidential campaign, perhaps we will be watching him facing his ex-disciple Marina Silva in October, after what could be a disastrous scenario for Olympics, between social protests, corruption scandals, a health contingence (the Zika Virus), an economy decreasing 4%, and a power struggle between the left and right wings that could end up in a way more tragic that could be imagined.