Not So Bad…

Not So Bad…

By: Erreh Svaia

“Popularity should be no scale for the election of politicians. If it would depend on popularity, Donald Duck and The Muppets would take seats in senate.”

Orson Welles

I couldn't imagine how popular could be Mexican president Enrique Peña if he was better advised by his staff, he looks and acts like those old obsolete politicians, too cartoonish, too overacted (ironic considering that his wife is a popular soap opera actress), too far removed from the people, and that might not be a mistake at all, but this apparent distance definitely opens up a gap, that the opposition, specially populists have widely used to their advantage and in order to create an image of Peña Nieto as the worst president in the last 50 years. 

A big part of Internet users are young people, too young to remember, an advantage for the PRI (Institutional Revolution Party) in order to sell itself as the "new PRI", and to position themselves as better political option than the PAN (National Action Party) after its 12 years in federal government, but a disadvantage when it comes to be compared with the new left, led by the MoReNa Party (National Regeneration Movement), which tends to reactivate Revolutionary Nationalism, a policy developed by the PRI in the 70s as their “version” of socialism”, young people tend to ignore that Revolutionary Nationalism in the 70s led us into similar economic contingencies to today's Brazil and Venezuela type of government, with a big dependency on oil, on a big state, and a Keynesian way of doing politics that led into the worst economic and political crisis in México's history. 

Just imagine if Enrique Peña had the intelligence and the intuition to get down to the streets, to mix with real people without a script (although he is not a superb improviser I must add), to speak out of the protocol, marching on the streets against corruption, marching on the streets against crime, getting down and dirty while helping the victims of natural disasters, participating on gay pride parades, yes, it might be a little bit populist, but that's exactly what Peña lacks, that down to earth nature, that close to the people attitude, and that is exactly his Achilles heel, he lives in another reality, he is an over acting performer, and populist opposition smells that easily, immediately denouncing the classy Peña as totally out of the country's reality. 

What made Peña Nieto popular from the start was his devotion for consensus, he was bright at bringing together the forces from the left and the right in the so called "Pacto Por México" or Pact For Mexico, it was an amazing stunt that created agreement between apparently opposing forces and helped his very much publicized reforms to move on, unfortunately, Peña Nieto wasn't wise at using the hard won political capital, he quickly got himself involved in not well explained corruption cases, and he wasn't determined at solving in a clear and satisfactory way the case of the missing teachers in Guerrero, he wasn't determinant at facing the Nochixtlan crisis, and he was totally awkward and totally ill-advised at conceding Trump's visit to Mexico, that was probably his biggest crisis outside the country, and it could have helped Trump to revamp his campaign. 

As far as numbers goes, Mexican economy is not great, but ok, the GDP is firmly at 2 or 3%, not great buy better than countries like Brazil, Argentina, France or Italy, but that level of growth is simply not enough considering the lost decade the country faced during Carlos Salinas, Ernesto Zedillo and Vicente Fox administrations, inflation is under strict control, despite the dollar crisis caused by Donald Trump´s campaign, foreign investment keeps growing with Korean and German car plants inaugurated in the country, with a steady rise of the country as a strong touristic attraction, Peña Nieto's staff have done a decent job, but Peña's lack of ability to capitalize on it has given opposition a chance to create a gloomy image, add to that a rise in crime which the government hasn't been able to solve the way it promised, and an apparently detachment when it comes to issues about corruption. 

No, Peña Nieto is not the most corrupt president of the last 50 years, he is not the worst leader this country had in the last 50 years, believe me, we have had awful presidents, Peña was brilliant at making consensus and push his agenda forward, but he never took the time to connect with people, he looked more like a member of a royal class and that was fertile ground for his critics, who missed not a change to attack him and use the distance he put between the people and himself. 

No, there's only two years left for Peña Nieto's government, his political party the PRI looks like it's about to fall to the third political position in the country, they don't seem untouchables anymore, it was easy for opposition to capitalize the disconnection of Peña's government and the people, his reforms lacked the right timing and the right profundity, but he managed to pass them thru the Senate and the Congress, and his first months at office launched the so called "Mexican Moment", it was pure expectation, when compared to the brutal crisis in Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina, it gave us the edge, his team was bright but they couldn't live up to those expectations, opposing sectors were able to capitalize every mistake, a whole factory of defamation was set on and suddenly we were in worst economic situation "virtually" than Venezuela, considering that the oil crisis was well solved, this constructed image of crisis has led foreign investors to look at countries like Brazil and Argentina who are not performing as well as México, but again, is a game of cultivating an image that Peña hasn't been able to do, a couple of magazine covers was not enough, Peña should have taken the streets and not forget to continue his campaign in order to publicize his advances, time will tell if he was as bad as his critics wanted us to think, but the stability of the country despite the volatile global surrounding is not something gained by pure chance, I'm not a big supporter of Peña, he is still forged on the most dangerous and corrupt party in the country, but to be very honest there were many presidents worse than him in the last 50 years, just think of Luis Echeverria and José López Portillo, Peña would get his last chance next year, once the smoke is clear concerned the USA elections, stability and major growth will happen in the USA, preventing political mistakes and more cases of corruption may help, and the time is right for Peña to undo his gravity defying hairdo, to put his tie away and to roll his shirt sleeves, and the most important of all, to mix with the people, to talk to them, to learn from them, it looks very difficult to happen, but despite 4 so-so, years, he still has another chance of overcoming all the bad publicity against him.

In the end, I’m sure and immensely popular prime minister like Canada´s prime minister Justin Trudeau will suffer major seatbacks unless his politics are not set in march and start generating results, but nevertheless, although popularity doesn’t mean a good government, it usually helps a lot.