Putin’s war of smoke and mirrors

Putin’s war of smoke and mirrors

By: Eerick Niiles Kross

Taken From: Politico

In modern 21st-century warfare, non-military approaches — propaganda, and economic, cultural and humanitarian sabotage — will play a greater role than purely military methods, Russian Armed Forces chief Valery Gerasimov argued, a year before the Russian occupation of Crimea.

“In a couple of months, even days, a well-functioning state can be turned into a theater of fierce armed conflict, can be made a victim of invasion from outside, or can drown in a net of chaos, humanitarian disaster and civil war,” he wrote.

The purpose of war today is not the physical destruction of the enemy, but the internal eroding of our readiness, will, and values.

Through the lens of Russia’s aggression in Crimea, the invasion of eastern Ukraine, the destabilization of Moldova, the escalating war in Syria and the refugee crisis, Gerasimov’s doctrine shows Russian activities over the past two years — both overt and covert, across the Middle East and Europe — to be part of a single, unified war against the (partially imagined) “hegemony of the West.”

Gerasimov’s doctrine draws on “reflexive control theory” — a favorite among Soviet military theorists — and asserts that control can be established through reflexive, unconscious responses from a target group. This group is systematically supplied with (dis)information  designed to provoke reactions that are predictable and, to Russia, politically and strategically desirable.

Before and during its attack on Ukraine, for example, Russia increased violations of NATO air space. The Kremlin spread stories about Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons, organized large-scale military exercises on its western borders, and behaved, in every forum, like a militant, aggressive, and irrational opponent. This was paired with a global information campaign: “There is no war in Ukraine. Russia is only helping to solve a crisis.”

This campaign, with its aggressive show of arms, was designed to make the West reluctant to intervene militarily or give assistance to Ukraine. By denying the reality of war, Russia allowed the West to hope that the Kremlin was looking for a way out. Russia hid its real goals behind the possibility of “finding a diplomatic solution.” And the West responded as predicted — our leaders sacrificed their negotiating position in the hope that this was sincere.

In this context, the West’s subsequent sanctions on Russia are a 21st-century version of the tactical territorial surrenders to Napoleon in the 19th century and Hitler in the 20th. The use of sanctions was a tactical loss in that it acknowledged the annexation of Crimea. These kinds of stop-gap measures degrade Western diplomacy and rob it of legitimacy.

Full-blown war requires a constant adversary. The Ukrainian government and Syrian rebels are not Russia’s constant enemies — the Kremlin’s strategic documents define the country’s main adversaries as the United States, NATO, and the EU. Russia will only negotiate a solution after it achieves its aims in Ukraine and Syria, as well as its other openly-declared strategic goal: to demolish the Western security architecture and rearrange our existing world order according to its own interests.

To be clear: Success in Ukraine and Syria will not be defined by military victory in either country. It will be defined by whether or not America and NATO decide to fight, and whether or not Europe confronts Russia over its values.

The West has come to see the real scope of Russia’s hostile activities in recent months, after Russian air raids in Syria forced new refugees toward Europe. Russia’s best hope of survival, as George Soros recently argued, is to ensure the EU collapses first.

To understand how Russia advances this goal we have to grapple with the tenets of “non-linear war,” in which multiple participants — all changing sides as they go — fight each other in a military environment but where eventual success is independent of direct military activities. The architect of this theory is Putin’s adviser, Vladislav Surkov — the same man Putin tapped to meet  U.S. diplomats in Kaliningrad to “find a solution” to the Ukrainian war and sanctions.

If Russia is fighting a non-linear war, then the humanitarian disaster in Syria is not just the regrettable side-effect of Russian military operations. It is part of a larger effort.

In the past month, European officials have said they believe Russia is “weaponizing” refugees to fuel the crisis in Europe. American officials admit that “what Russia’s doing is directly enabling ISIL.” This is because the Islamic State is a perfect tool for creating chaos. If ISIL is contributing to the destruction of the “U.S. project” in Iraq and driving the West out of the Middle East, then ISIL is, for Russia, a permissible combatant in Russia’s war in the region.

For months, Russian state media has trumped up the likelihood of Europe’s imminent collapse in the face of the refugee crisis. Russia’s national army of trolls fill social media with these stories.  Right-wing extremists in Europe — whose ties to Putin and his ideologues are well-documented and enough of a concern to have warranted an official study by U.S. intelligence agencies — call for the dissolution of Europe. This is not just “Russian propaganda.” These are measures the Kremlin considers integral to winning small-scale battles in a larger geopolitical war.

Russia wants to destroy our core strength: our confidence in the values that underpin our political systems. European leaders who look to blame Germany for the refugee crisis, who want to build walls on their borders, to negotiate separately with Putin, and end the sanctions in favor of a “new dialogue” — all in the name of their “national interests” — are demolishing Europe’s unity.

There’s a reason Putin’s theorists are science fiction authors. Russian GDP equals that of Italy – it should not be an existential threat to the West. We must shake ourselves free from the Kremlin’s masterful fiction and confront the truth that we are in an asymmetric war. This is a war that we can win, and it matters that we do.

We are sleepwalking through the end of our era of peace. It is time to wake up.