Are We Close to Cold War 2.0?

Are We Close to Cold War 2.0?

By: Erreh Svaia

Caprine Dispersion

“Even during the years of the Cold War, the intense confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States, we always avoided any direct clash between our civilians and, most certainly, between our military.”

Vladimir Putin

There’s a big possibility that we are about to witness the beginning of what will be the "fight" of the 21st century these days, just as strong disagreements keep arising in the USA-China relationships, with the USA as a catalyst for instability between the two now superpowers trying to overcome each other, the possibility that China might finally assume a more rude and competitive position might not be too pleasing for the USA, but it seems that Donald Trump erratic behavior (and lack of diplomatic skills considering the Taiwan and North Korea incidents, along with the power play of Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte playing off against each other) may convince the Xi Jinping government to take a more dominant and abrasive role not only in the already conflicted South China Sea region and not accepting USA intervention in the place.

Once China looked as a powerful and economic dominant player in Latin America at the height of the so called "pink tide", with major interventions in "socialist" countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia, apparently a growing menace as its advances were close to reach México (with left wing parties with affinity for North Korea and Venezuela getting more popular in the country), while the USA under Obama leadership looked to use the Trans Pacific Partnership in order to contain China in its own influence sphere, but as the best plans fail sometimes, China economic power started losing gas and its influence slowly started to disappear (although the country is not admitting it), the right wing assumed power in Brazil and Argentina seeking again a strong relationship with the USA, and big economic and political crisis started causing trouble in Venezuela, leaving small countries like Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia isolated and in trouble, just as the TPP plans faded away at the beginning of the Trump administration leaving alone countries like Vietnam and Singapore, distrustful of China's interventionist policies.

In some ways we could be facing now a Cold War 2.0 between two superpowers treating to overcome each other, it would be risky to talk about immediate military actions, but is no fake news to start thinking about a trade war between the two countries with USA considering rising taxation on Chinese steel, while introducing American beef, and China protecting its internal market, one that is looking increasingly attractive to the USA, military actions might take place somewhere else (despite recent anger of Xi Jinpin for the presence of a USA ship in China´s sea, Washington pressure on China to stop NK nuclear tests, and USA weapon sell to Taiwan), in North Korea, which is slowly getting close to becoming a new "Cuba" for these new cold war, North Korea similarities to Cuba are striking, as both of them serve as a satellite for another country, once Cuba served as an advanced position for the USSR in the USA influence sphere, NK is playing nowadays a similar role on USA ally countries like Japan, South Korea and Philippines.

The fact that a nearsighted Donald Trump thinks he can return the USA to its former manufacturing glory in order to create jobs, is not only putting at risk USA 's own actual hegemony, it's also putting at risk its relationship with Mexico and upsetting China's vocation for cheap manufacturing, putting us all in an uncomfortable war for the lowest manufacturing cost that could not only affect salaries in the three countries but also creating domestic social upheaval within each of them, in the end what we could foresee in the future of both superpowers is a regression from the 21st industrial advances, a possible affectation on the advance of the democratization processes which have taken South Korea and Taiwan from authoritarian regimes into blossoming democracies, the fight for today's most important market, China's and a possible frontal crash with another uprising superpower, India.