Claudia Sheinbaum: Saving or Sinking Mexico Has Never Been So Complex

 

It is no surprise that Washington wants the so called "super cop" Omar García Harfuch in power. Harfuch fits the profile Washington demands at the head of every Latin American country: a tough, predictable man who serves their interests. Another Felipe Calderón. Another Nayib Bukele. Another Vladimir Padrino.

Washington’s decision to greenlight García Harfuch as successor to President Claudia Sheinbaum caused deep resentment among figures like Eduardo Verástegui, one of the Latin American far right lobbyists who dreamed of Trump’s support to become viceroys of Mexico. That is not going to happen. Verástegui was just another useful idiot.

Despite Harfuch’s popularity growing week after week in national polls, Washington decided to put him through a trial by fire. The death of undercover CIA agents operating in Chihuahua accelerated the timeline and refocused their actions. Patience has run out. The New York Prosecutor’s Office formalized its charges against the government of the state of Sinaloa and several Mexican officials for collusion with drug trafficking. The narco government accusation is no longer a veiled threat. It is a concrete, documented accusation with names and surnames.

The scandal shook Morena like never before, and its echo reached the farthest corners of the planet. Washington’s pressure intensifies with very concrete tools: the USMCA (T-MEC), which hangs by a thread, and the permanent threat of tariffs that could suffocate Mexico’s fragile economy in a matter of weeks.

Today, the Mexican government faces a crossroads of its own making: hand over the governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, the main accused by the United States of association with drug trafficking, or protect him and, with that decision, sign the expiration date of Morena in power. There is no third path. There is no room for further maneuvers.

Trump needs a victory. He didn’t get one in Iran. He didn’t find it where he expected. He needs it now, because his popularity and political capital are in free fall. Mexico has become the stage where that victory is possible. The governments of Iran, Cuba, and Mexico probably want his head right now, but that does not change the correlation of forces. Is that why Mexico supports the Cuban government unconditionally? Does it expect them to do the dirty work?

What very few say out loud is this: the Trump administration holds the key to destroying Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, not Morena. They need Morena to control the country as the PRI once did, but with Harfuch at the helm, if he passes the test. The model was already applied in Venezuela. Washington was not after Chavismo; it was after Maduro, who refused to cooperate. When Maduro fell, they left the Chavistas in power, who swore loyalty to the United States. For the Venezuelan people, absolutely nothing changed.

In Mexico, the logic is the same. They want out anyone who swears loyalty to the narco before Washington. And that will end up destroying the current government from within.

Morena, like all those parties in Mexico that call themselves revolutionary, is loud on the microphones and submissive in practice. It has always been that way. Morena will remain in power, but only with someone who has Washington’s approval. That is Harfuch’s real opportunity.

Morena rose to power very quickly. It forged all kinds of alliances to win elections, and that is now destroying them. Sow the wind and you will reap the whirlwind. This is the moment when Claudia Sheinbaum must decide whether to get rid of the garbage or drag the entire country toward ruin.