Conclave: The Battle Ahead

How quickly time flies.

More than twenty years ago, I went out for an early morning run. It must have been around 4:30, maybe five. I had my headphones on, and as I jogged through the park, I received a piece of news that I still remember vividly: Pope John Paul II had passed away.

It was April, the first days of the month. And now, two decades later, history repeats itself. I woke up just as early, with that same silence and darkness that only exists before dawn... and learned of the death of Jorge Bergoglio, Pope Francis.

I had already witnessed the death of John Paul, then the historic resignation of Benedict XVI — something unimaginable at the time — and today, after twelve years of papacy, Francis’ passing is confirmed.

His health had already shown signs. Recent respiratory issues fueled rumors that he was preparing to say goodbye. And the curious — almost poetic — thing is that it happened just one day after Easter Sunday. Precisely today, Monday, on the anniversary of the founding of Rome.

To many, Francis was a progressive Pope. A man of reform, change, and openness. But shaking the foundations of an institution as ancient and conservative as the Catholic Church is no easy task. Still, he dared. He appointed women to key positions, opened up debates, and made many uncomfortable. Not because he was a communist — as some absurdly claimed — but because he believed the Church could not remain trapped in the past.

And, of course, that sparked resistance. Especially now, in a time where ultra-conservative forces have gained ground. Donald Trump in the U.S., Giorgia Meloni in Italy... leaders who embody that ultraconservative wave now aiming to influence the Vatican as well.

Tense days lie ahead. A new conclave. A new election. And this time, the ideological battle won’t be just spiritual, but also political. Those who saw the movie Conclave — based on a novel said to be much better — may have a glimpse of the secrecy and rituals that surround this moment. The film didn’t impress me much, but I was intrigued by how it portrays the tension between tradition and renewal.

Because, even if it shouldn’t surprise us, the Church is also divided. There are moderate, conservative, and progressive cardinals… And now, with Francis’ death, those forces will clash again.

Will the Church continue its path of openness and inclusion? Or will it take a turn toward dogma and stricter doctrine? All signs suggest that the conservative wing will try to move its pieces. Names like American Archbishop Raymond Burke — closely aligned with Trumpist circles — are already being mentioned.

But the real question is: is the Church willing to understand that change is its only path to survive, grow, and become stronger? Or will it retreat, dig in, and shut the doors that Francis had started to open?

The election of the new Pope might answer that. Will he be Italian, like so many before? Will the papacy return to Europe after the Argentine experiment? Or will the Church send a message to the world by choosing someone who represents the majority of its faithful — now found in Latin America, Africa, or Asia?

I don’t know. But what I do know is that the days ahead will be crucial.

And as Carl Jung once said: “Synchronicity is the reality of miracles.”

The fact that this happened right after Easter Sunday and on Rome’s founding anniversary does seem... symbolic.