Trump, Tariffs, and the Trade War: A Global Chess Game

The deadline arrived, and Donald Trump did not disappoint his supporters. He firmly signed the decree imposing tariffs of up to 25% on products imported from Canada, Mexico, and China to the United States, beginning February 4th. For months, analysts speculated about what scenario this "game theory" might take, but Trump acted exactly as he had promised. He could have been more selective, more gradual, or even better planned. But the truth is that the president knew something crucial: delaying further would mean losing support and, worse, credibility. In politics, as in life, there are moments that demand action, and this was one of them.

It's evident that this move will have immediate repercussions. In the short term, the tariffs will affect not only Mexico but also key U.S. states like Arizona, California, and Texas, where most Mexican exports are concentrated. California and Texas aren't just states; they're fundamental economic engines for the nation. Viewed from the outside, Trump's decree seems like an impulsive move, without proper strategic reflection. But what's clear is that these tariffs will drive up prices of basic products in the U.S., such as meats, grains, dairy, beers, electronics, lumber, steel, cars, and gas. Who will pay the price for this gamble? The American consumer.

Canada was the first country to take the hit. Many thought that Trump, by dividing his attack, was playing his cards intelligently. What better way to divide his rivals than by launching a selective offensive? But within hours, the news that tariffs would also apply to Mexico and China changed the rules of the game. The plan wasn't so brilliant after all. Instead of fracturing alliances, Trump forced Mexico and Canada to set aside their recent disputes and strengthen a historic alliance.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick to take the initiative. Instead of staying behind, he sought to approach Mexico to draw up a joint action plan. Mexico, for its part, responded immediately, announcing it would impose its own retaliatory tariffs. Thus, in an unexpected turn, what could be the beginning of an unprecedented economic war began, and it happened on a Saturday, unusually. Trump's increasingly contradictory statements made clear the chaos of his approach: 25% tariffs for his closest trading partners, 10% for his "enemies." Mexico and Canada, accused of not acting against illegal migration and fentanyl trafficking, while China received "softer" treatment. Is this a sign of fear or, perhaps, a calculated strategy?

Trump has made it clear that his goal is to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) before 2026. His initial plan was to split the trilateral treaty into two bilateral agreements, putting Mexico and Canada at a disadvantage. However, what we've seen in these days suggests the opposite. Instead of weakening his relations with Mexico and Canada, Trump might have unwittingly created a scenario where the alliance between these two countries strengthens. And in this new scenario, China could take advantage of the situation to move even closer to Canada and Mexico, building an even stronger bloc.

The imposition of these tariffs puts the entire world on the brink of a trade war. In this new scenario, the creation of economic blocs could be inevitable, with Russia and China lurking, ready to take advantage of the economic isolation the U.S. is heading toward. Trump is betting that goods arriving in the U.S. can be manufactured internally, but he underestimates a crucial detail: labor costs. If production moves to the U.S., inflation could soar, which would aggravate an already delicate economic situation. Is this shift the beginning of a government seeking to reduce the value of American labor? If doors to migrants close, will local labor be left to bear all the productive weight? Can they balance labor supply and demand without falling into an inflationary spiral?

Meanwhile, China and Russia observe the situation, with their minds set on how they could capitalize on the vacuum the U.S. is leaving. The BRICS group, for example, could rethink its strategy to take advantage of this global space that the United States is unwittingly unleashing. It's a game of pieces, and the major powers are already positioning themselves.

Trump, by signing this decree, is not only altering trade dynamics but also reconfiguring the global political map. The question that remains is: Will this be the beginning of the end for an era of American dominance, or a brilliant move that will change the course of economic future? Only time will tell.