Battle for Europe

Battle for Europe

By: Erreh Svaia

“It is impossible to preserve my friendship with people who are allegedly leaders when they are attacking their own people, shooting at them, using tanks and other forms of heavy weaponry.”

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

A couple of days ago, Russian Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev traveled to Germany in order to negotiate new conditions on the West sanctions imposed against the Russian economy derivative from the military intervention in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea by the Russian army, this might be a sign that although president Putin popularity keeps soaring high, the Russian economy is in big trouble now, as sanctions plus low oil prices, plus the costs of the military intervention in Syria might have started to erode deeply Putin's economic power, a situation that might be changing the geopolitical board in Europe the next months.

While Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse, eclipsed by Putin rising popularity; In Germany, at the heart of the European Union, while the country's economic remains stable but with little growth, Chancellor Angela Merkel's approval rate, after the migration crisis is quickly declining along the Euroscepticism felt by some nations of the union, accusing Germany and France of directing economic policies to their convenience, while Putin plays with populism and nationalism in order to gain approval, Merkel´s little popular, but effective policies have met disapproval and controversy.

With the UK's undecided about the conditions of staying or leaving the Union, this is again a tough time for Europe, deflation, lack of growth, a prolonged crisis, migration, terrorism, xenophobia, nationalism and a growing distrust over European Union style of democracy, becoming at the same time a feeling that the Union is not being managed in an equally fashion for all its members, becoming a too heavy burden, UK's indecision, and Hungary, Czech Republic, Italy and Greece inclination towards Russia is starting to become suspicious after Russian investors are apparently moving their strings on this country in order to create chaos and confusion, weakening the cohesive nature of the Union, adding to that suspicion of foul play in Turkey, where an authoritarian regime was supported by the EU in exchange of accepting the influx of migrants, and the rise of nationalism in countries like Poland, France, Netherlands, UK, and Hungary are starting to create cracks at the base of the Union, with Putin's war in Syria, supposedly against the Islamic State, but in reality targeting the rebellious guerrilla against Syrian dictator Basher Al Assad has aggravated the crisis causing even greatest flow of people towards Europe, Putin's strategy is a clever one, threatening EU's political and economic stamina to the max, but it has to work fast, or it will backfire on Russian already affected economy, a situation that could start hurting putting popularity at home, add to that EU´s use of Turkey as an immediate opponent to Russia in Middle East and the variables for an escalating armed conflict are starting to align, no surprise that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is getting stronger and stronger in his homeland, somebody is obviously backing him.