Erdogan´s Playing Tough Guy

Erdogan´s Playing Tough Guy

“I am a person who is inclined to define relations between individuals based on principles.”

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

By: Erreh Svaia

Just as I’m trying to make up my mind about Poland´s new right wing government, I´m wondering what´s exactly going on in Turkey these days, many thought that Erdogan authoritarian rule, moving each day towards the right wing, would be hurt on elections day, but again the “Architects of Fear” worked in favor of the authoritarian, Turkish people taught What better than strong man to defend the country form the expanding Islamic State?, but…Are we sure Turkish government is not helping or getting any benefit from ISIS rise? Is there a connection between Turkey and ISIS just like Russia recently denounced? And if Turkey has a connection with ISIS, so has the USA?

I could have bet on Turkey that it´s geopolitical situation would have put them at the front of the Middle East country leading to a better integration between East and West, but life is a like a box of chocolates, and Tunisia ended up as the new bright light in Middle East, as they were able to absorb the shocking waves of the so called Arab Spring, turning them into something really positive, holding now what could be the key towards a close up in relations between North Africa and the European Nation.   

Ironic that once we thought of Turkey as the best link given his geographical location, and as a promoter of modernism and union, and now they are going backwards, generating more friction between the East and the West, with Erdogan casting off freedom of speech, media freedom, human rights and multiculturalism, but more surprising to me is that Erdogan is doing all this with society´s democratic approval, with the fear as a powerful driver, the fear of the extreme fundamentalism of ISIS, drives people towards the extreme right of Erdogan, just as it recently happened in Egypt, and I bet people in Libya or in Iraq would definitely also prefer someone like Erdogan (or Saddam Hussein or Ghadaffi…) to reinstall order in the Middle East.

Now, under increasingly authoritarian rule of its prime minister, Turkey is putting an abrupt end to the once much dreamed integration with the EU (as Authoritarian states are a no-no with the European Union), quickly vanishing from sight, and in an unsuspected turn, like the ones in M. Night Shyamalan movies, Turkey will be an even more greater factor of disagreement within the East and the West, sadly wasting a glorious chance to evolve the relations between USA and the EU, and Russia (Is Erdogan moving his pieces wisely not letting the USA and Russia align together?).

It is still difficult to distill the true nature of Turkey role in the Islamic State conflict, as their near passive role in the borders with Syria contrasts now with their intensely fractured relationship with Russia, after a Russian plane was shot down by the Turkish army in recent days, Erdogan once  increasing the restrictions towards society and media, has played well his cards, and the region fears towards the Islamic State turned his authoritarianism into the lesser evil,  but his bravey towards Russia military exercises on Syrian air put the world again on the verge of a major armed conflict.

As we are still to witness the type of answer Vladimir Putin will apply to Erdogan's actions, every player true nature is still unclear, the USA, uncaring attitude towards ISIS, Turkey suspicious relation with ISIS, as Russia denounces Erdogan government benefits from ISIS oil extracted and stolen from Iraq, Russia not so clear attacks on Syrian soil, not clearly defined if aimed against ISIS or against rebels in Syria, too many interests at play, and too many obscure motifs behind every player, add to that the immigration conflict, which again puts Turkey as a clue country in order to solve the situation, and is a Gordian Knot that won't be solved so easily.

Some even weirder clue on Turkey future, might rely on immigration, terrorism and Russia containment, as recent actions show, in a very surprising turn, Turkey might be even granted its admission to the European Union by serving as a buffer for Europe towards immigrants and terrorists, which might create a similar scenario to France for Turkey if it doesn’t develop the conditions to educate and assimilate immigrants and prevent them from getting radicalized.