Spring Is Coming…

Spring Is Coming…

By: Erreh Svaia

“Of course the biggest mafia in Russia has always been the government; in Soviet times, the Communist Party, and now a circle of former KGB and FSB.”

Martin Cruz Smith

It was Churchill who said that: "Russia is riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma", and he wasn't so wrong after all, it became a "hermit kingdom" during the age of communism, a role model for dictatorships still "functioning", like Cuba and North Korea, after the fall of the USSR, there was hope that Russia would change and become a more open democracy West styled, but even its principal promoter, Boris Yeltsin ended up ruling the country in dictatorial style, putting aside communist leaders from the Communist Party, but keeping the structure of the KGB, taking away ideology but letting alive the oppressive structure, Yeltsin successor, Vladimir Putin, precisely an ex KGB agent made a tacit pact with the Russian people, promising better standards of living in exchange of an authoritarian rule, I must admit that it worked for a while, and not for everyone, as high oil and gas prices helped the young Federation to grow and become one of the most promising economies in development, in a perfect world, things could have worked this way longer for Russia, but life isn't always fair as you know.

Disenchantment between Russia and the European Union became the spark that ignited troubles for Russia, friction with Ukraine and the Crimea factor troubled the relationships between Russia and the West, economic sanctions were imposed, apparently not a big menace for Putin, but the decreased growth of China created a world surplus of oil, affecting considerably the base of Russian economy, considering that as in the case of Venezuela, Russia is mainly an oil based economy, with a little developed manufacturing industry, the big hit caused by the fall of prices stole the impulse the country had, considering that rich countries like Saudi Arabia are starting to suffer after low oil prices, estimating it could endure this situation for no longer than 5 years, it became a worrying factor for Russia, with all its strength based on oil, it was also Marx, who took a quote from Hegel, saying that: "History repeats itself twice, first as a tragedy and next as a farce", this could be the story of today's Russian Federation with Putin desire to give Russia an image of an antiestablishment country against the West, a virtually strong opener, while his country economy, weakened by monopolies, corruption and lack of investment and technology succumbs to the world's volatility, nearly breaking the pact between Czar Putin, and the Russian people.

Putin last chance may come in the form of the European Union fragmentation, but the fact that controversies about the Alexander Litvinenko assassination by Russian spies under Putin's command in London, might have an effect on the UK's decision not to separate from the EU, but to remain on it, making it stronger, leaving Putin's last hopes for equilibrium on the south of the continent, Greece, Italy, France and Spain, where growing disagreement with the austerity policies of the EU, and his “strategic” incursion on Syria, which seems to be creating a massive exodus of refugees into the EU, destabilizing it, could save Putin from having a really bad year, and perhaps his rule to start losing appeal for the Russian people, voices of dissident Alexei Navalny and the performance group Pussy Riot about one of the closer allies of Putin, Yury Chaika, are starting to rise again about a new case of corruption within Putin´s government.