Trump's Play: Why Mexico Might Hand Over AMLO to Save Morena

 

Is Trump targeting Mexico? Considering the so called "Monroe Doctrine," now updated as the "Donroe Doctrine," the answer is a resounding yes, though not in the way many might imagine.

Washington knows the playbook of Mexico's self proclaimed "revolutionary" governments all too well: they thrive on the most sophisticated form of simulation. While they rally the masses from the presidential balcony with anti imperialist speeches and leftist rhetoric, behind the scenes they meekly submit to Washington's wishes in order to hold onto power. It is the art of the double face, perfected over decades.

Venezuela was a radically different case. An undisguised dictatorship and a political mafia clinging to power, whose strategic alliance with China and Russia gave them enough backing to openly defy the United States. But the new U.S. authoritarian regionalism has brutally exposed Venezuela, Ukraine, and Taiwan, whose respective fates are now merely a matter of time.

The United States seeks absolute control over the entire hemisphere, leaving no room for ambiguity or dissent. Venezuela dared to challenge this new U.S. hegemony, and Washington did not hesitate to surgically neutralize Nicolás Maduro. Obviously, the top Chavista leadership quickly understood the geopolitical play and were more than willing to negotiate in exchange for preserving their privileges and power apparatus.

The result is revealing: the Chavistas will remain in power, now fully subordinated to the United States, after having handed over their own leader without ceremony. Washington is perfectly content with authoritarian jailers in power, as demonstrated with Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Will that be the new role assigned to Delcy Rodríguez? Time will tell.

In Mexico, however, things are substantially different and far more complex. President Claudia Sheinbaum is perceived as a weak figure constantly operating under the omnipresent shadow of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). The United States will continue demanding total and unconditional subordination from its direct neighbors: Canada and Mexico. There is no gray area in this new doctrine.

Canada has already given multiple public demonstrations of submission. Mexico has also begun to yield, as evidenced by the recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, a clear sign of alignment with Washington.

But the question no one dares to ask openly arises: Will the United States demand the ultimate and irrefutable proof of subordination from its neighbors? Will it require Canada to publicly support the annexation of Greenland? Will it demand that Mexico hand over former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? Will it force President Sheinbaum to resign? Will it directly place Omar García Harfuch in power?

It is no surprise or secret that García Harfuch is Washington's preferred man in Mexico. His hardline credentials and ideological alignment with U.S. security policies make him the perfect candidate for the White House's interests.

The ultimate and definitive proof of Mexico's subordination to the United States would precisely be placing García Harfuch in the presidency. With Harfuch in charge, the Mexican political landscape would undergo seismic transformations:

First, Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation would mean a break with the drug cartels that the United States has linked to the current and previous administrations.

Second, Harfuch would represent a strongman in Mexico, fully aligned and subordinated to U.S. interests without question.

Third, it would signify a drastic shift of the ruling party toward the most conservative right and a complete return to the militarized security policies of former President Felipe Calderón.

Fourth, Harfuch would govern with an iron fist in the style of Nayib Bukele: zero tolerance for dissent, a strategy of "super-prisons," and absolute control over the security apparatus.

If handing over Nicolás Maduro to the United States allowed the Chavista elite to retain power in Venezuela, then handing over López Obrador, displacing Sheinbaum from power, and transferring control to García Harfuch would be the perfect way for the ruling party to maintain power under new conditions.

It is absolutely clear that there will be no armed military incursion into Mexico, that would be unnecessary and counterproductive. The proposal to install a strongman well regarded by Washington and willing to execute the U.S. agenda, under the pretense of remaining within the current "nationalist" regime, is already on the negotiating table.

For those naive enough to think that Maduro's capture would magically change things in Venezuela, there are even more gullible people who believe that an eventual U.S. intervention in Mexico would aim to remove Morena from power. Nothing could be further from the truth.

As the saying goes: for there to be massive disillusionment, there must first be plenty of illusions.

The uncomfortable truth is this: Morena will negotiate directly with the United States the exact formula to preserve power at all costs, even if it means total, complete, and irreversible subordination to the United States' authoritarian regionalist project.

Power is not abandoned, it is transformed. And Morena is more than willing to carry out that transformation if it guarantees its political survival. The question is not whether there will be negotiation, but what price they will be willing to pay and how soon the move will be executed. Mexico is a key piece on the current geopolitical chessboard. For the United States, the total subordination of its direct neighbors is a matter of maximum security.