Frozen 2: The Mexican Movie I Don’t Want to Watch
“Productivity is being
able to do things that you were never able to do before.”
Franz Kafka
By: Erreh Svaia
Frozen 2
might be a good new for both of my daughters, but I don’t know of that Disney
movie transferred to the Mexican economy anytime soon, what I’m talking here
about is the second year Mexico's economy remains completely frozen and without
any sign of a new dynamic coming soon, two years without significant growth and
it seems that if we had serious doubts in 2013 about 2014 and 2015, the
uncertainty is even bigger for the 2016.
There is a
saying in Mexico that goes: "The one who moves don't appear in the
photo", it’s a way of asking people to always be prepared, but it seems
that the Mexican government has taken the old saying all messed up, and had
followed it literally by freezing the economy and almost stopping all the
motors that keep it moving, as we are now facing what could be the signs of a
new year of no economic growth.
If we look at some of the main indicators we found the following: Internal consume was stopped last year by the fiscal reform which centered mainly on taxes upon production and work, here the myopia lies on the confusing act of taxing productivity, consumption was largely untouched in an awkward populist move that seems to privilege illegal business activities rather than legality, again, here the government makes the big mistake, on purpose of not increase the base of tax payers, increasing the fiscal load to the already captive contributors, middle class working people have felt the effect on their pockets reducing consumption and given major players like Walmart two of its worst operative years in the country.
Lack of security is another factor that has had a big impact on economy, no matter how much the government tries to sell an image of security and legality to the outside world, sooner or later cases like Ayotzinapa or the recent escape of “El Chapo” Guzman burned down that image of a strong state with strong institutions, as all of them are really built on cheap propaganda, and foreign investors seem to think it twice before putting the money on the country as all these deficiencies are becoming too obvious.
Exports is the remaining economic motor and perhaps the government's current big bet, as the country right now is modeled as a manufacturer for the automobile and aeronautical industries with middle to low employment positions, low paid in order to take geographical advantage and compete with China and other south Asia nations, who are all already leaving this model for something more profitable as design based on innovation, all this while the Mexican model goes obsolete resulting too vulnerable to global volatility, nowadays the weak growth in the U.S. and the lack of it in the UE and Japan are big obstacles and a sign that we should change our exports vision, rather than being a mere manufacturer, we should become an innovative designer capable of creating products of added value that can compete with the best in the world in cost and quality.
Economic projections contracted again like in previous years going from 3% to 2.4%, to those who thought about oil as a lever for growth, prices keep falling, while the recent lifting of bans on Iran economy is an obvious sign that the trend will continue for the next years, the future is in innovation, not selling raw materials and the clue for that is education, a long term investment that our government is simply to blind to see.
If we look at some of the main indicators we found the following: Internal consume was stopped last year by the fiscal reform which centered mainly on taxes upon production and work, here the myopia lies on the confusing act of taxing productivity, consumption was largely untouched in an awkward populist move that seems to privilege illegal business activities rather than legality, again, here the government makes the big mistake, on purpose of not increase the base of tax payers, increasing the fiscal load to the already captive contributors, middle class working people have felt the effect on their pockets reducing consumption and given major players like Walmart two of its worst operative years in the country.
Lack of security is another factor that has had a big impact on economy, no matter how much the government tries to sell an image of security and legality to the outside world, sooner or later cases like Ayotzinapa or the recent escape of “El Chapo” Guzman burned down that image of a strong state with strong institutions, as all of them are really built on cheap propaganda, and foreign investors seem to think it twice before putting the money on the country as all these deficiencies are becoming too obvious.
Exports is the remaining economic motor and perhaps the government's current big bet, as the country right now is modeled as a manufacturer for the automobile and aeronautical industries with middle to low employment positions, low paid in order to take geographical advantage and compete with China and other south Asia nations, who are all already leaving this model for something more profitable as design based on innovation, all this while the Mexican model goes obsolete resulting too vulnerable to global volatility, nowadays the weak growth in the U.S. and the lack of it in the UE and Japan are big obstacles and a sign that we should change our exports vision, rather than being a mere manufacturer, we should become an innovative designer capable of creating products of added value that can compete with the best in the world in cost and quality.
Economic projections contracted again like in previous years going from 3% to 2.4%, to those who thought about oil as a lever for growth, prices keep falling, while the recent lifting of bans on Iran economy is an obvious sign that the trend will continue for the next years, the future is in innovation, not selling raw materials and the clue for that is education, a long term investment that our government is simply to blind to see.
With a
frozen economy remaining that way for the last two years and no signs of
certainty for the 2016 the future looks kind of grey for the country, elections
might functioned as an escape valve for the government as it kind of relaxed
social impetus for a while, but it won’t be long for corruption to keep weakening
not only the government´s image but the whole county´s own, it won’t take long
for unsetting fractions to start taking advantage of this weakness and an
scenario like the one in Venezuela or Greece is not too far removed from our
future, I hope we are wise enough to have learned the lessons of what happened
in those countries and we are mature enough not to pretend experimenting those
kind of nonsense measures in our country.
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