Merkel and Her Fantastic Four

Merkel and Her Fantastic Four

By: Erreh Svaia

Caprine Dispersion

“For me, it is always important that I go through all the possible options for a decision."

Angela Merkel

Four more years, for the fourth time, on the road to 16 years as Germany´s chancellor, Angela Merkel´s bittersweet triumph on las Sunday elections will be perhaps her most controversial win, and her narrowest one, her party, the conservative CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats Union, and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union) did its worst showing in decades (since 1949 to be exact), registering the 33% of the total votes and an approximate 246 seats on the German Parliament, the Bundestag, it seems that Merkel and her party are suffering the same fate of other traditional parties all across the world, also part of this debacle is another worst showing by Merkel´s main rival, Martin Schulz and his Social Democrat Party (SPD), who also did its worst electoral showing since 1949, with a 20.5% of the total votes and securing just 153 seats, both major and traditional German parties landing far from the 355 seats required to form a ruling government, forcing Merkel and Schulz to consider options in order to conform the majority required, Schulz (separated form Merkel is saying goodbye to being part of the government) has been firm on his statement that as a part of the formed “grand coalition” with Merkel´s party, the Social Democrats suffered and lost most of his socialist base, so he announced his negative to go again as partners with the CDU, becoming opposition and leaving Merkel in a complex scenario of conforming a new, untried before, coalition with two other parties more or less closer to the Centre, the pro-business, FDP (Free Democratic Party) and the pro regulation, Die Grünen, or Green Party; it wouldn’t be such a hard job as many might think, considering that Merkel has managed to move successfully to both left and right without losing the Centre vision, as Merkel has recently showed her conservative politics concerning a “social market economy”, her generous and visionary position towards migration (allowing the entrance of one million migrants, which obviously costed her with the CDU nationalist base), and her approval towards sexual diversity, Merkel has learned and benefited, contrary to the SPD, from her leanings towards the left, and that shows in her still strong numbers, as the CDU is still Germany´s strongest party, but some alerts have been turned on, as fragmentation in the Bundestag will start to give Germany a sense of instability and volatility previously unseen (we must consider that stability has always been Merkel´s main flag), remarkable to mention the growth displayed by some of the previously minor parties like the nationalist AfD with 13% of the total votes and the FDP, whose leader Christian Lindner did a strong showing with 11% of the votes, a strong disapproval towards traditional parties, that has its echoes in Brexit and Trump´s and Macron´s victories and defeats by the ruling elites.

Perhaps the most alarming story in the German elections is the ascension of the Alternative Fur Deutschland (AfD) Party, a xenophobic, anti-Semitic, far right nationalist party in the manner of France´s National Front, even the NF´s Leader Marine Le Pen, was quick to congratulate AfD leader Alexander Gauland, an ex CDU member, for the party´s strongest performance yet, but AfD´s role in the Bundestag is yet to be seen, as the party is already imploding after a recent announcement by Frauke Petry, the party co leader along with Gauland, that she is leaving the parliamentary group because of her disagreement with the party hardcore base represented by Gauland, without Petry, the AfD loses its biggest asset, considering that Petry was the most popular face in the party and seen as many as one of its most accessible member, without her, is possible that the AfD will start to radicalize even more, and perhaps get more into the shape many people have denounced them to be, Neo Nazi sympathizers against a mixed population, allowance to refugees, rejection of open door policies, the Europe Union and what they perceive as a “cult of guilt” on the Holocaust issue, without Petry, AfD will lose perhaps its last traces of moderation, and if there´s some remote chance that Schulz reconsiders and rejoins Merkel´s party, then AfD will undoubtedly become Germany´s main opposition force, a scary fact already considered inside and outside Germany and a sign of an era about to end, and the sign of a system that operated successfully in Germany since the end of WWII.

There´s little doubt that Merkel will manage to create a pragmatic coalition, but it´s uncertain how well she will be able to handle Germany´s crisis to come, as big trouble struck Germany´s representative car industry, recently hit by quality fraud allegations (which could get her into trouble with the Green´s leaning towards electric cars), the fast aging population going into retirement and the deterioration of the young economic active population (a situation Merkel has been trying to solve by allowing migrants into the country), a too long austerity policy that has seriously deteriorated the country´s infrastructure, and of course the international security issue, perhaps Merkel´s biggest asset, and still biggest challenge, considering her ability to deal in tough negotiations with Trump´s attacks towards free markets, Putin´s attacks towards the European Union and Erdogan´s attacks towards national security, add to that the populist menace that has finally managed to position itself within the Bundestag, this might be Merkel´s biggest challenge and most difficult term, as her legacy is in its most dangerous position ever, if many have seen “Mutti” Merkel as the free world biggest defender, this is her biggest chance to prove it.