Middle East: The Invisible Chess

 

A few kilometers separate the attacks between Afghanistan and Pakistan from those pitting Israel against Iran. It is a matter of kilometers and days before the Middle East bursts into flames. The question is not whether the tension will grow. The question is who will align with whom when the fire spreads. Will India join Afghanistan and Israel against Pakistan?

It is only a matter of time before India, Afghanistan, and Israel form a common front against Pakistan and Turkey. That could be the next great battle after the fall of Iran. Saudi Arabia will be the big unknown. Once Iran falls, nothing will sustain the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That bond would change the regional balance.

India will see a clear opportunity. It could ally with Afghanistan and Israel to weaken or even annihilate its historical enemy Pakistan. This is not just a recent rivalry. It is a dispute that carries wars, borders, and nuclear tensions. India has been cautious, but it is aligned on Israel's side. It can use Afghanistan as a strategic piece to pressure Pakistan from another front.

Battle fronts in the Middle East abound. Israel will seek to get rid of its enemies as soon as possible. The relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be key to understanding the outcome. If that relationship strengthens, Pakistan will become the apple of discord between them. The tension seems unsustainable.

If India advances in unity with Afghanistan against Pakistan, China's intervention would be almost a certainty. China cannot allow India to alter the regional balance without responding. How uneasy will China be if India gets involved in a direct armed conflict? It is a chess game between China and India. Every move in the Middle East impacts the Asian board.

The enemies of my enemies are my friends. Under that logic, alliances reconfigure. Israel and Turkey could keep some distance, but in a threatening position. Turkey will watch Israel. Saudi Arabia will watch Israel. Everyone watches everyone.

The fall of Iran would make Pakistan and Turkey very nervous. For Turkey, Pakistan's survival is vital. If Pakistan falls, Turkey loses a key strategic ally in the region. If Pakistan is severely threatened, Turkey will get involved. And if Turkey enters the Middle East conflict, it is almost certain that it will drag Europe along.

In that scenario, the United Kingdom and France could find themselves immersed in the escalation. Even Spain could be pulled in by its relationship with Turkey within NATO. Pakistan falls and Turkey follows. Turkey would be left alone and isolated in the Middle East, but not without trying to drag its European allies along.

China will maintain formal distance from the conflict but will closely monitor India. Meanwhile, conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East attract all global attention. That allows China to advance in the shadows in trade, infrastructure, and strategic routes. Every crisis distracts. Every distraction opens space.

Russia observes and calculates how to benefit from the chaos, from disruptions in trade routes and supply chains. Without Venezuela and without Iran in the energy market, Russia climbs steps as a key oil supplier to China. While the United States believes it secured oil supply by neutralizing Venezuela and attacking Iran, in reality it removed commercial rivals from Russia.

China will seek to get closer to Saudi Arabia, although that could become complicated in the future if Israel consolidates its regional position. For Russia, closeness with Saudi Arabia is key at all costs. Energy is power. Oil is influence. Trade routes are control.

The United States had no other plan for Venezuela than to control the oil. It has no other plan for Iran than to consolidate Israel's dominance in the region. If anyone believes that the United States intervenes in countries to give them freedom, they ignore how real geopolitics works. Here we are talking about resources, routes, strategic positions, and balance of power.

If you understand strategy, planning, and SWOT analysis, the patterns in the Middle East become evident. For many we live in an era of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. I think everything is becoming clearer. It is not chaos. It is rearrangement. It is power moving silently while the world watches the flames.