Trump and the Shock Doctrine: What Does It Mean for Mexico ?

We know that Donald Trump's negotiation style is rough and abusive. He seeks to shake the opponent by delivering a hard and precise blow. The goal is to strike first and gain an obvious advantage. Trump will assume the presidency of the USA in January 2025, but the turbulence has already begun. Just a week ago, he announced 25% tariffs on his USMCA partners, Mexico and Canada. It is a frontal and blatant attack that seems irrational, but its intention is basically to make a strong statement. He has succeeded, as he has caught the attention of the leaders of both countries.

In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau moved at lightning speed. He immediately announced that they would tighten their immigration controls, as well as continue their war against the destruction of fentanyl labs. Canada is a strong ally of the USA against China in the trade war. On one hand, it has imposed high tariffs on cars from that country; on the other, it has begun to denounce a discreet invasion of goods from China through Mexico. Trudeau wasted no time and went to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to talk with Trump. There is a clear shift of Trudeau towards the conservative wing, as there are elections on the horizon in Canada.

Mexico, on the other hand, did not fare as well, or rather, did not know how to react adequately. After Trump's announcement a week ago, only a diplomatic letter was issued, pointing out the potential consequences of a tariff increase. On the other hand, President Claudia Sheinbaum engaged with Trump by announcing that if the USA imposed tariffs on Mexican products, Mexico would do the same with American products. At the same time, the Mexican government stated that it would continue with its strategy of containing the flow of migrants to the USA, which makes us the "Trump wall." Additionally, it was announced that the fight against drug trafficking would be intensified, just as the New York Times published a note about new recruitment strategies in chemical science universities by drug cartels, aiming to start large-scale fentanyl production in Mexico to compete with fentanyl from China.

The next apparent battlefront opened by Trump is against the so-called BRICS, a heterogeneous geopolitical bloc formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Trump has announced tariffs of up to 100% on products from these countries if the bloc seeks to consolidate a common currency to counter the dominance of the dollar. The truth is that it seems impossible for India and China to agree on something like this. Although both countries appear allied in this bloc, the reality is that India has always played pragmatically, being an ally of Russia and the USA. On the other hand, it seems complicated for China to submit to Russia or vice versa. Brazil and South Africa? Lost in their own labyrinths.

Trump's strategy of eroding the relationship with Canada and Mexico seems like a grave mistake. It is important to remember that North America as a trade bloc has enormous power. Damaging this relationship or breaking the bloc would only end up weakening the USA itself. On the other hand, the economies of the USA and China are so intertwined that entering into a declared trade war would end up severely damaging both economies. Something that perhaps Putin's Russia is looking to take advantage of. Weakening the USMCA, weakening the USA, and pitting it against China is something that undoubtedly benefits Russia. Unfortunately, these actions would severely affect Mexico.

Trump's strategy, although aggressive, seeks to start his presidency by asserting his position of power and control on the global stage. However, the repercussions of these decisions can be deep and long-lasting, affecting not only the directly involved countries but also the global economy as a whole. The question that remains is: Is Mexico prepared to face this new reality and adapt to the changes that are coming?