Mexico: From Authoritarian Order to Criminal Chaos

I'm not going to start with the tired argument that things were better in the past, because that's simply not true. I firmly believe that times have improved, that in many aspects progress has been made, and overall, we are better off than before.

However, some issues do not evolve, do not progress, and have been left behind due to mistakes, poor decisions, or problems that were not properly addressed at the time. And those mistakes, as they say, have identifiable causes and responsible parties with names and faces.

Yes, Mexico is going through complex times in terms of security. It seems like the government has lost control, as if the crisis is no longer in its hands. For decades, we have suffered from violence that was once confined to certain areas but has now spread throughout the country. These are no longer isolated incidents but rather an undeclared war against organized crime.

In my opinion, the problem dates back many years, to a time when Mexico lived under what we could call a "soft dictatorship." Not a classic military dictatorship, but the old PRI—the PRI that controlled everything. As it was once described, it was a "perfect dictatorship": a sophisticated system where power was recycled every six years under the illusion of democracy. In reality, it was a regime where a single party made all the decisions, created a fictitious opposition, and brutally silenced those who opposed it.

During those years, drug trafficking operated under state control. It wasn’t a confrontation; it was a structured relationship where the cartels followed the government's rules. I'm not saying it was good or bad, but that’s how it worked. However, when the PRI began to weaken in the 1990s and eventually lost power in 2000, the brutal discipline that kept organized crime in check also disappeared.

Drug trafficking was no longer a subordinate of the state. With political alternation, the cartels took advantage of the power vacuum to negotiate with each new state and federal government. There was no longer a clear chain of command or centralized control. Mexico ceased to be a one-party dictatorship and became a country with political alternation, which was positive in many ways but disastrous in terms of security.

With the PAN's rise to power, the situation spiraled even further out of control. The drug trade was no longer seeking to obey but to bargain, negotiate, and, most alarmingly, place itself on equal footing with the government. During the administrations of Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón, the state completely lost control over organized crime. The so-called "war on drugs" was not a planned strategy but a desperate reaction to an enemy that was no longer under control.

Today, the problem has escalated to an even more dangerous level. Morena not only negotiated with the cartels to gain power but completely subordinated itself to them. We are no longer talking about a government that merely negotiates with organized crime but one that is financed by it. Drug money was crucial in Morena’s rapid rise to power.

Why such resistance to confronting them? Why the "hugs, not bullets" policy? Why those visits to Sinaloa to greet the families of cartel leaders? The answer is obvious: the government cannot fight those who financed it.

That is why, even from the United States, Mexico has been denounced as a narco-state. We have gone from a system where organized crime worked for the government, to one where the government partnered with the cartels, and finally, to an even graver scenario: a government completely subjugated by organized crime.

What is the solution? It’s not easy to say. A strong government with a single chain of command and discipline could be one answer, but that is not the government we have today. Today, power lies in the hands of organized crime, and as long as we remain in this dynamic, it will be impossible to regain control of the country.

Karl Marx once said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Morena is a parody of the old PRI—it has revived the worst aspects of that regime without preserving what little was functional. And as long as organized crime is the real power behind the scenes, Mexico will remain trapped in a spiral of violence that will not be easy to escape.

The big question is: What will the government do when its true bosses, the cartels, give it an order that conflicts with U.S. interests? Who will they obey? Those who financed them, or those who can destroy them in an instant?