Madness or Strategy?

Just a few hours ago, Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with U.S. President Donald Trump. Carney, a representative of Canada’s Liberal Party, arrived in Washington as the designated prime minister to address urgent issues that have shaken the region: Trump’s tariff threats not only toward trade rivals like China and Vietnam, but also toward traditional allies such as the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

These erratic decisions have severely rattled global markets and unleashed a wave of worldwide economic uncertainty. Faced with reality, Trump has had to backtrack on several occasions after promising the impossible and crashing into the wall of facts. Now, Carney aims to calm investors, stabilize the region, and put out the fire ignited by Trumpist rhetoric.

But something more is at stake. Trump is clinging to an old delusion: the annexation of Canada. An idea that seems absurd on the surface, but reveals a deeper strategy. This isn’t about tanks or soldiers—this isn’t Russia, and Canada isn’t Ukraine. Here, the invasion is not military; it’s economic, symbolic, and geopolitical.

What many fail to articulate—not even Trump, although he senses it—is that we’re witnessing the end of globalization as we knew it. The new paradigm is regionalization: economic blocs seeking self-sufficiency, closing ranks among strategic neighbors.

China is already weaving alliances with Japan and South Korea to reduce external dependencies. Europe, though fragmented, is exploring potential (even unthinkable) rapprochements with Russia. Meanwhile, Trump moves in his usual way: chaotic, impulsive, but with a clear objective. He wants to seal off the hemisphere.

That’s why he talks about Greenland. It’s not madness; he seeks territorial control in the north to gain an edge in the Arctic, where melting ice will open new trade routes now dominated by Russia. He also wants Canada—not for its culture, but for its geographic and strategic position.

And that’s also why he’s strengthened ties with Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Trump doesn’t think in diplomatic terms; he thinks in geopolitical dominoes: align, subordinate, control. Like someone moving pieces on a board only he understands.

Mark Carney was clear: “Canada is not for sale, not today, not ever.” To which Trump responded with a damning phrase: “Never say never.” He’s right about that. In any negotiation, you always leave a bridge unburned in case you need to cross it later.

Trump has already spent his bullets this year. The markets have contained him. But the real game will be in 2026: the renegotiation of the USMCA (or NAFTA, if you prefer). His bet will be to divide and conquer: break the trilateral agreement and negotiate one-on-one with Canada and Mexico. Dismantle the alliance that historically counterbalanced U.S. weight at the negotiating table.

If he succeeds, the U.S. will have total advantage: more power, more control, more deals tailored to its needs. A region shaped by and for Washington’s interests. And then, we could indeed speak of a unified and subordinated North American economic zone.

How far does Trump want to go? He already has agreements with El Salvador and Argentina. Is Mexico next? Colombia? The entire continent? Maybe. Although countries like Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, or Nicaragua might resist, their divided governments and fragile economies make them vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Africa seems to be the prize divided among Europe, Russia, and China—though we can't overlook the growing influence of an assertive India. South America could face the same risk if it doesn’t act quickly and define a clear direction. The reconfiguration of the global chessboard has begun. And Trump—whether we like it or not—knows it.

Mark Carney made a move. He went to Washington. He sat down to negotiate. Meanwhile, in Mexico, we don’t see Claudia Sheinbaum doing the same. We don’t know what her strategy will be. But if she follows her predecessor’s style, she’s likely to concede behind closed doors rather than confront openly.

Globalization continues to die. The order that prevailed for nearly five decades has come to an end. No one knows what the future holds, but there are signs that regionalization will be a major part of it. The pieces are moving, and the players are analyzing every move. Trump may seem clumsy in his advance, but it’s becoming clear that there is a larger vision of dominating the region—perhaps entirely. Asia is moving swiftly, yet China’s leadership will eventually be challenged by India.