Ukraine and Russia One More Time

Ukraine and Russia One More Time

By: Erreh Svaia

Caprine Dispersion

The arbitrary annexation of Crimea in the year 2014 was a clear signal of the intentions of the Russia of Tsar Putin, to recover part of the strategic territories of the former Soviet Union in order to recover part of that vital space between Russia and the West, the provocation found little impact on the part of the West, except the already known economic sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, this while NATO remains paralyzed before the attack of Donald Trump himself against the allies of the country he heads, this to the extent that leaders of The European Union, like Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, revealed the intention to create an army of their own, which should have ignited some warning in Putin, to whom obviously a united Europe with a capacity for defense beyond the weakened NATO would not be convenient.

Once really close to NATO in the first decade after the year 2000, Ukraine saw these plans get stuck in the face of Viktor Yanukovych's rise to power, Yanukovych's argument would be to keep Ukraine as a non-aligned country, although later they would be discovered and the real intentions of this one and its pro-Russian policies that took to Ukraine in a contrary direction to a country that wished to move forward, integrate to Europe and leave behind its past under the Soviet yoke, the result was a strong war civilian known as Euromaidan, and Yanukovych's departure from the government, as well as his subsequent escape to Russia carrying a considerable amount of capital from the country's reserves, but Ukraine would lose its golden opportunity amid internal tensions, more Russian interventions in the border and the apparent lack of decision of its president-elect Petro Poroshenkho and his collaborators It is of a nature close to nationalism that sought at all costs to keep Russia away, but hesitant to cede sovereignty in search of integration with the EU.

Three small armed ships of Ukrainian origin sailed the Strait of Kerch, traveling from Odessa to Mariupol, at that time they were intercepted and attacked by Russian ships, the Ukrainian ships were captured as well as their crew, for Ukraine, the route was something of a routine and respecting treaties between both countries that allow the coexistence of ships of the two nations, for Russia, was a flagrant invasion of its territory, the reaction of the government of Ukraine was to declare a "martial law" on its borders with Russia, something unprecedented in recent history despite the constant conflicts on its eastern border, considering the size of the ships, it is also valid to argue an exaggerated reaction from Russia, but possibly this conflict has a more symbolic weight than it could have really and that is because it triggers a series of actions with greater resonance, considering that the elections in Ukraine are only 4 months away from happen.

For now, for Russia, the conflict has criminal connotations, so it will seek to judge and imprison the crew, for Ukraine, the crew must be treated as "prisoners of war" and be treated according to international laws, for Russia no doubt it is an opportunity to expand its area of ​​influence again, while for the Ukrainian government with Poroshenkho in front is an opportunity to escalate a conflict to enormous proportions in order to seek to postpone the elections, in which although Poroshenkho seeks to contend , its possibilities of triumph are scarce, before the return of a well-known character like Yulia Tymoshenkho, decidedly anti-Russian, so that both Putin (Who still sees his popularity indexes fall before reforms in pension laws) and Poroshenkho (Who already speaks of an open war against Russia), the opportunity to escalate the conflict and take advantage to feed the nationalist spirits and with continue to increase the popularity of both (in obvious current decline) is pure gold.

Once again Ukraine will suffer the indecision of its government and the possibility of continuing to be torn apart in the face of a nationalist conflict, on a border that remains one of the most conflictive in the world, the G-20 summit to be held in Argentina this Saturday will surely be the setting for the talks on this conflict, the condemnation of the West and the position of Russia.